Following the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, all eyes now turn to the Vatican as the world awaits the selection of his successor. The College of Cardinals will soon gather in Rome for the papal conclave, where they will engage in the centuries-old process of electing the next leader of the Catholic Church.
Pope Francis, who led the Church for 12 years, broke new ground as the first Latin American pontiff. His death may usher in another historic moment – potentially the first black or Asian pope in the Church’s 2,000-year history. But who are the leading contenders to receive the white smoke, signaling their elevation to the papacy? Let’s examine the cardinals most frequently mentioned as potential successors.
The Progressive Wing
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 (Philippines)
Currently emerging as the frontrunner in betting markets, Tagle has been dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis” due to his alignment with many of the late pontiff’s views. As the former Archbishop of Manila, he would represent the fastest-growing Catholic region in the world if elected.
Tagle has criticized what he considers the Church’s overly harsh stance toward gay couples, divorcees, and single mothers, arguing that such rigidity has hampered evangelization efforts. While opposing abortion rights in the Philippines, he is generally considered among the more liberal candidates. His election would mark another historic first – the first Asian pope.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70 (Italy)
As the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Parolin worked closely with Pope Francis and is viewed by many as the “continuity candidate.” A skilled diplomat with experience in Nigeria and Mexico, he occupies the middle ground on most issues facing the Church.
However, Parolin hasn’t shied away from expressing traditional views at times. When Ireland voted to legalize same-sex marriage in 2015, he described it as “a defeat for humanity.” His reputation has suffered somewhat in recent years due to his role in negotiating the 2018 agreement between the Holy See and China, which critics viewed as too accommodating to the Chinese Communist Party.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69 (Italy)
A favorite of Pope Francis, who appointed him as the Vatican’s peace envoy to Ukraine in 2023. In this capacity, he met with President Zelensky and later traveled to the United States to meet with President Biden, though his diplomatic efforts with Russia showed limited progress.
Zuppi has been the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference since May 2022 and holds more progressive views than many of his peers. In 2018, he co-authored a book advocating for dialogue and understanding with “our LGBT brothers and sisters,” positioning him as a potential successor who would continue Francis’s more inclusive approach.
Cardinal Mario Grech, 67 (Malta)
The Maltese cardinal has previously served as the Bishop of Gozo and is now the Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops. He has called for the Church to “learn a new language” when dealing with gay couples and divorcees, although he is also seen as a moderate who balances tradition with progressive values.
The African Candidates
Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76 (Ghana)
The former Bishop of Cape Coast was considered a frontrunner during the 2013 conclave that elected Francis. If chosen, Turkson would make history as the first black pope, representing the Church’s growing presence in Africa.
On contentious issues like homosexuality, Turkson has carved out a middle position, arguing that laws criminalizing gay relationships in many African countries are too harsh while maintaining that African cultural perspectives on sexuality must be respected.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65 (Democratic Republic of Congo)
Perhaps the most vocal critic of Pope Francis among the leading contenders, Besungu made headlines when he rejected Francis’s decree allowing priests to bless same-sex couples. He effectively declared the doctrine, known as “Fiducia supplicans,” null and void in Africa, arguing it would cause scandals on the continent.
At 65, Besungu is the youngest of the frontrunners. His election would signal a dramatic shift away from Francis’s more progressive approach and potentially reverse many of the late pontiff’s reforms.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79 (Guinea)
Another potential first black pope, Sarah has held Vatican positions since the papacy of John Paul II. A staunch conservative, he has denounced gender ideology as a threat to society and spoken out against Islamic fundamentalism. His age, however, may work against him, as the Cardinals might prefer a younger candidate who could serve longer.
The Conservative European Bloc
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72 (Hungary)
The Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest would be only the second pope, after John Paul II, to have administered in the former Soviet bloc. Erdo campaigned for his predecessor to be exonerated after being arrested for opposing Hungary’s communist regime.
A deep conservative, Erdo has spoken against allowing divorced or remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion. He has also made controversial statements comparing refugee acceptance to human trafficking and is considered close to Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán.
Cardinal Wim Eijk, 71 (Netherlands)
A former doctor and one of the most conservative cardinals in contention, Eijk has sharply criticized Pope Francis on several occasions. He once wrote that remarrying is “a form of structured and institutionalized adultery” and called Francis’s decision to allow Protestants to receive Communion in Catholic churches “completely incomprehensible.”
Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76 (United States)
The Wisconsin-born Burke represents the traditional wing of American Catholicism and has been a persistent critic of Pope Francis. He believes strongly in the traditions of Latin Mass and opposes allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion.
Burke has described the Church’s reformed approach to gay people, civil marriages, and contraception as “objectionable.” His relationship with Francis deteriorated to the point that in November 2023, the Pope reportedly evicted Burke from his subsidized Vatican apartment and terminated his salary as a retired cardinal.
Other Notable Contenders
Cardinal José Tolentino, 59 (Portugal)
The youngest serious contender at 59, Tolentino (who often uses the suffix “de Mendonça”) hails from Madeira, Portugal – also the birthplace of soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo. He has served as an Archbishop and held several Vatican positions.
As the “youth candidate,” he has advocated for biblical scholars to engage with the modern world by watching films and listening to music, suggesting a potential bridge between tradition and contemporary culture.
The Conclave Process
The papal conclave will begin after the nine days of mourning for Pope Francis. All 252 cardinals will travel to Rome, though only those under 80 years old (currently 138) are eligible to vote. The cardinals will be sequestered in the Sistine Chapel, where they will cast secret ballots until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority.
The outcome will be signaled to the world through the famous smoke signals from the chapel chimney – black smoke indicating no decision has been reached, white smoke announcing a new pope has been chosen.
A Church at a Crossroads
The election of the next pope comes at a pivotal moment for the Catholic Church. Pope Francis pushed the boundaries of traditional Catholic teaching on several fronts, adopting a more inclusive approach toward divorced Catholics, emphasizing social justice and environmental issues, and taking a more conciliatory stance toward the LGBTQ+ community.
The choice facing the cardinals reflects broader tensions within the Church: Will they continue Francis’s path toward modernization, or will they select a more conservative figure who might restore traditional practices and teachings?
Regional dynamics will also play a crucial role. With Catholicism’s center of gravity shifting from Europe toward the Global South, particularly Latin America, Africa, and Asia, there is growing pressure to select a pontiff who reflects this demographic reality.
Whether the cardinals will make history by electing the first black or Asian pope or return to an Italian or European candidate remains to be seen. What is certain is that their choice will shape the direction of the world’s oldest continuous institution and the spiritual lives of 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide for years to come.